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142 results
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A space-time framework for integrated studies

Short description: A space-time framework for integrated studies

Year: 2013

Author(s): Ruin, I; Lutoff, C; Creton-Cazanave, L; Anquetin, S; Borga, M; Chardonnel, S; Creutin, J-D; Gourley, J.J; Gruntfest E; Nobert, S. ; Thielen, J.

Organisation(s): CNR S/UJF-Grenoble; University of Padova; JRC; University of Colorado; Kings College London

Link: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00226.1


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Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping

Short description: Flood hazard maps at trans-national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments.

Year: 2013

Author(s): Alfieri, L, Salamon, P; Bianchi, A; Neal, J; Bates, P; Feyen, L

Organisation(s): ECMWF; JRC; University of Bristol

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9947/abstract


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An automated routing methodology to enable direct rainfall in high resolution shallow water models

Short description: Recent high profile flood events have highlighted the need for hydraulic models capable of simulating pluvial flooding in urban areas. This paper presents a constant velocity rainfall routing scheme that provides this ability within the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic modelling code. The scheme operates in place of the shallow water equations within cells where the water depth is below a user-defined threshold, enabling rainfall-derived water to be moved from elevated features such as buildings or curbstones without

Year: 2013

Author(s): Sampson, C.C; Bates, P.D; Horritt, M.S. ; Neal, J.C.

Organisation(s): School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bri; Horritt Consulting, Bristol, UK

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9515/abstract


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Communicating probabilistic information from climate model ensembles—lessons from numerical weather prediction

Short description: Climate model ensembles are widely heralded for their potential to quantify uncertainties and generate probabilistic climate projections. However, such technical improvements to modeling science will do little to deliver on their ultimate promise of improving climate policymaking and adaptation unless the insights they generate can be effectively communicated to decision makers. While some of these communicative challenges are unique to climate ensembles, others are common to hydrometeorological modeling mo

Year: 2013

Author(s): Stephens, E; Edwards, T.; Demeritt, D

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; King\'s College London

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.187/abstract


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Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

Short description: The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products fo

Year: 2013

Author(s): Ramos, M. H; van Andel, S. J.; and Pappenberger, F.

Organisation(s): Irstea (formerly: Cemagref), Hydrology Group, UR H; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft; ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather F

Link: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2219/2013/hess-17-2219-2013.html


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Flood risk and uncertainty

Short description: In Rougier, J; Sparks, R.S.J. and Hill, L. eds, Risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards, Cambridge University Press

Year: 2013

Author(s): Freer, J; Beven, K; Neal, J; Schumann, G.J.-P; Hall, J.; Bates, P.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol

Link: http://books.google.nl/books?hl=en&lr=&id=XrZh1xxdoMEC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Risk+an


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Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the PoRiver, Italy

Short description: In the recent years the flood—related risk is increasing worldwide being inundations among the natural disaster which induces the maximum damage in terms of economic losses. In this study a methodology to map the flooding residual hazard due to levees failure events induced by piping in embankments protecting flood—prone areas is proposed. Ensemble simulations are used to account for uncertainties in location, geometry, and time evolution of the levee breaches. Probabilistic flooding hazard maps are generat

Year: 2013

Author(s): Mazzoleni, M; Bacchi, B; Barontini, S; Di Baldassarre, G; Pilotti, M; Ranzi, R.

Organisation(s): University of Brescia; UNESCO-IHE

Link: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000840


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he European Flood Alert System EFAS and the communication, perception and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Short description: Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy make

Year: 2013

Author(s): Demeritt, D; Nobert, S; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger F.

Organisation(s): ECMWF; King\'s College London

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9419/abstract


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Integrated Risk Assessment of Water Related Processes

Short description: in “Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, and Disasters”, Editors: Paolo Paron and Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elsevier Book series on Hazards and Disasters

Year: 2013

Author(s): Giupponi C; Mojtahed V; Gain A. K; Balbi S; Biscaro C;

Organisation(s): University of Venice

Link: www.kuturisk.eu


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Natural hazard risk assessment and management methodologies review: Europe

Short description: In the last decade, Europe-wide natural hazards have accounted for large numbers of the most serious causes of mortality; this death toll accompanies several billions of euros in damages. These facts support the need to reduce natural hazard impacts on the European territory in which, by in large, are going to augment in the future primarily due to climatic change and inappropriate land use management. In this context risk assessment and management through appropriate prevention and protection measures play

Year: 2013

Author(s): Cirella, G.T; Semenzin, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A.

Organisation(s): University of Venice

Link: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-7161-1_16#page-1


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Post-processing hydrological ensemble predictions intercomparison experiment

Short description: As part of this special issue on hydrological ensemble prediction systems, this paper reports on the intercomparison experiment for post-processing techniques that has been initiated in 2011 by the International Community on Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions. The design of this intercomparison experiment and the data sets available are presented. The post-processing methods that have been applied to date are listed and example results are shown. It is expected that through the exchange and joint verification

Year: 2013

Author(s): van Andel, S.J ; Weerts, A; Schaake, J; Bogner, K;

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Deltares; Consultant, Annapolis; Joint Research Centre of the European Commission,; ECMWF

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9595/abstract


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Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence

Short description: Effective flood risk management depends on methods for estimating flood hazard and an appraisal of the dominant uncertainties in the analysis. Typically, hydraulic models are used to simulate the extent of flooding for an estimate of the flow in a particular reach for a chosen probability of exceedance. However, this definition causes problems at river confluences where flows derive from multiple sources. Here, a model-based approach was adopted to describe the multisite joint distribution of river flows fo

Year: 2013

Author(s): Neal, J.C; Keef, C; Bates, P.D; Beven, K.; Leedal, D.

Organisation(s): School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bri; JBA Consulting; Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster Universit

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9572/abstract


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Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

Short description: \"In order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management, a review of existing cost assessment approaches was undertaken. This review considers droughts, floods, coastal and Alpine hazards, and examines different cost types, namely direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and the costs of risk mitigation.\" Overviews \"state-of-the-art cost assessment approaches and discusses key knowledge gaps.\"

Year: 2013

Author(s): V. Meyer; N. Becker; V. Markantonis; R. Schwarze; J. C. J. M. van den Bergh; L. M. Bouwer; P. Bubeck; P. Ciavola; E. Genovese; C. Green; S. Hallegatte; H. Kreibich; Q. Lequeux; I. Logar; E. Papyrakis; C. Pfurtscheller; J. Poussin; V. Przyluski; A. H. Thie

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; ICREA; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; VU University, Amsterdam; Helmholtz Centre Potsdam; University of Ferrara; Société de Mathématique Appliquée aux Sciences; Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie

Link: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/1351/2013/nhess-13-1351-2013.html


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Urban flood modelling

Short description: In book: Floods in a changing climate: inundation modelling, Cambridge University Press. Di Baldassarre, G. ed

Year: 2013

Author(s): Neal, J.C; Bates, P.D.; Fewtrell, T.J.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol

Link: http://www.cambridge.org/ca/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/hy


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Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

Short description: The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because the

Year: 2013

Author(s): Pappenberger F; Stephens E; Thielen J; Salamon P; Demeritt D; van Andel S. J; Wetterhall F; Alfieri L.

Organisation(s): European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts; University of Bristol, Bristol, UK; Joint Research Centre of the European Commission,; King\'s College London, London, UK; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9253/abstract


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A new approach to rapid assessment of breach driven embankment failures

Short description: \"To improve the prediction of flood volumes and the corresponding flood risks ... an improved method for predicting breach volumes has been developed. Application of the proposed methodology has lead to the development of the AREBA model, which rapidly predicts the breach hydrograph for breach driven homogeneous embankment failures. AREBA incorporates the effects of a grass cover on the flood hydrograph shape and calculates a flood hydrograph for surface erosion, headcut erosion or piping failures.\"

Year: 2012

Author(s): Myron van Damme; Mark Morris; Mohammed Hassan

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; HR Wallingford; Samui France; University of Oxford

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/FRMRC2_WP4_4_ScienceReport.pdf


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A review of operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe, Environmental Science and Policy

Short description: A review of operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe, Environmental Science and Policy

Year: 2012

Author(s): Alfieri L.; Salamon P.; Pappenberger F.; Wetterhall F.; Thielen J.

Organisation(s): JRC

Link: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDQ


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Costs of Natural Hazards - A Synthesis

Short description: \"The present Synthesis Report summarises the main results of CONHAZ. These comprise findings regarding best practices, overall knowledge gaps and recommendations for practice and research as well as a vision on cost assessments of natural hazards and their integration in decision making.\"

Year: 2012

Author(s): Volker Meyer; Nina Becker; Vasileios Markantonis; Reimund Schwarze

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; University of Innsbruck; Société de Mathématique Appliquée aux Sciences; Flood Hazard Research Centre; German Research Centre for Geosciences; University of Ferrara; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelon

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ_WP09_1_Synthesis_Report_final.pdf


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Demonstrating Strategic Flood Management of Estuary Systems

Short description: \"This report presents a study considering the adaptation of the Thames Estuary to uncertain and possibly extreme sea level rise. ...A suite of time dependent adaptation strategies is developed, to respond to rising sea level, and the performance of these options appraised in economic terms.\"

Year: 2012

Author(s): Jim Hall; Lucy Manning; Dr Hamish Harvey

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; University of Oxford; Newcastle University; Bill Harvey Associates

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/FRMRC2_WP_1%206_Final_Report%20_revised.


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Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

Short description: Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods.

Year: 2012

Author(s): Pappenberger, F; Dutra, E; Wetterhall, F; and Cloke, H. L.

Organisation(s): ECMWF; University of Reading; Hohai University

Link: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4143/2012/hess-16-4143-2012.html


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Evaluation a coastal flood inundation model using hard and soft data

Short description: Observed data of coastal inundation are very rare, yet are essential for testing the performance of simulation models for this significant natural hazard. In this paper we therefore examine the extent to which observed data can constrain predictions of a typical flood inundation model for a coastal flood event that affected the Somerset Levels in the UK on 13th December 1981. In doing so, a detailed reconstruction is made of the flooding that occurred along a 20 km stretch of the North Somerset coast

Year: 2012

Author(s): Smith, R.A; Bates, P.D. ; Hayes, C.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Environment Agency

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815211002635


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GloFAS: global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning

Short description: Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of population affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System, which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins.

Year: 2012

Author(s): Alfieri, L; Burek, P; Dutra, E; Krzeminski, B; Muraro, D; Thielen, J; Pappenberger,F.

Organisation(s): ECMWF; JRC; Hohai University

Link: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/9/12293/2012/hessd-9-12293-2012.htm


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How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation?

Short description: Two-dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for flood hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory flood risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a flood inundation model needs for a given problem. Here, three two-dimensional explicit hydraulic models, which can be broadly defined as simulating diffusive, inertial or shallow water waves, have been benchmarked using test cases from a recent Environment Agency for England

Year: 2012

Author(s): Neal, J; Villanueva, I; Wright, N; Willis, T; Fewtrell, T; Bates, P.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Ofiteco Ltd., Madrid, Spain; University of Leeds; Willis Research Network

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.8339/abstract


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Integrating remote sensing data with flood inundation models: how far have we got?

Short description: Review of integrating remote sensing data with flood inundation models

Year: 2012

Author(s): Bates, P.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.9374/abstract


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Is the current flood of data enough? A treatise on research needs to improve flood modelling.

Short description: Invited commentary Hydrological Processes Journal

Year: 2012

Author(s): Di Baldassarre, G; Uhlenbrook, S.

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.8226/abstract


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Methods for Estimating the Costs of Coastal Hazards

Short description: \"This report is part of the EU project ConHaz. The first objective of ConHaz is to compile state-of-the-art Methods and terminology as used in European case Studies. This compilation considers coastal hazards, droughts, floods, and alpine hazards, various impacted sectors such as health and nature. ConHaz distinguishes different types of costs among which: direct, indirect and intangible costs.On the other hand, it further examines the costs and benefits of risk-prevention and emergency response policies\"

Year: 2012

Author(s): Quentin Lequeux; Paolo Ciavola

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP07_1_FINAL.pdf


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Operational early warning systems for water-related hazards in Europe

Short description: Preparedness towards natural hazards is a key factor in the reduction of their impact on the society. Recent international initiatives are fostering the development of a culture of risk prevention and the promotion of early warning systems. Numerical weather predictions have become the basis of several flood-related warning systems, enabling the detection of hazardous events with sufficient lead-time to prepare effective emergency and response plans.

Year: 2012

Author(s): Alfieri, L; Salamon, P; Pappenberger, F; Wetterhall, F; Thielen, J

Organisation(s): JRC; ECMWF

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901112000457


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Predicting and managing flood risk associated with trash screens at culverts

Short description: \"Culverts are primarily structures which provide a route for watercourses to pass under obstacles such as roads, railways and urban development\'s and as such must be engineered and maintained effectively to minimize risk to property, members of the public and infrastructure by flooding.\" \"In response to this the aim of the research, presented here, has been to advance the knowledge-base regarding trash screen blockage and to develop simple tools and methods for assessing the risks associated.\"

Year: 2012

Author(s): Nick Wallerstein; Scott Arthur

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; Heriot-Watt University

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/Predicting%20and%20managing%20floodrisk%


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Probabilistic evaluation of flood hazard in urban areas using Monte Carlo simulation

Short description: The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two-dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness t

Year: 2012

Author(s): Aronica, G; Franza, F; Bates, P.D.; Neal, J.C..

Organisation(s): University of Bristol

Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8370


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Risk interpretation and action: A conceptual framework for responses to natural hazards

Short description: We review relevant literature with the aim of developing a conceptual framework to guide future research in this area. We stress that risks in the context of natural hazards always involve interactions between natural and human factors

Year: 2012

Author(s): J. Richard Eiser; Ann Bostrom; Ian Burton; David M. Johnston; John McClure; Douglas Paton; Joop van der Pligt; Mathew P White

Organisation(s): University of Sheffield

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420912000040


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SCIENCE-POLICY BRIEF - Costs of Natural Hazards —A Synthesis

Short description: Designed as a science-policy brief. Pamphlet style overview (2 page) of the main aspects of assessing the costs of natural hazards and summarising the results and recommendations of the CONHAZ project

Year: 2012

Author(s): CONHAZ consortium

Organisation(s): CONHAZ

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20science-policy%20brief%20synthesis_online%20version2.


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Technical Note: The Normal Quantile Transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system

Short description: In this paper some possible problems caused by small sample sizes for the applicability in flood forecasting systems will be discussed and illustrated by examples.

Year: 2012

Author(s): K. Bogner; F. Pappenberger; H. L. Cloke

Organisation(s): Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Euro; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; Department of Geography, King's

Link: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/8/9275/2011/hessd-8-9275-2011.html


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The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

Short description: The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however, these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we determine the patterns of uncertainty in an ERS-2 SAR image of flooding on the River Dee, UK and, using LISFLOOD-FP, evaluate how this uncertainty can influence the assessment of flood inundation model performance. The flood outline is intersected with high resolution LiDAR topographic data to extract water levels at the flood margin

Year: 2012

Author(s): Stephens, E.M; Bates, P.D; Freer, J.E. ; Mason, D.C.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Environment Agency

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169411007852


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Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling

Short description: The scientific literature has widely shown that hydraulic modelling is affected by many sources of uncertainty (e.g. model structure, input data, model parameters). However, when hydraulic models are used for engineering purposes (e.g. flood defense design), there is still a tendency to make a deterministic use of them. More specifically, the prediction of flood design profiles is often based on the outcomes of a calibrated hydraulic model. Despite the good results in model calibration, this prediction is

Year: 2012

Author(s): Brandimarte, L; G. Di Baldassarre

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE

Link: http://www.iwaponline.com/nh/043/nh0430753.htm


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Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps, different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

Short description: D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact.

Year: 2012

Author(s): Rotach M. W; Arpagaus M; Dorninger M; Hegg C; Montani A; Ranzi R

Organisation(s): University of Innsbruck; MeteoSwiss; University of Vienna; WSL; ARPA; University of Brescia

Link: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/2439/2012/nhess-12-2439-2012.html


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Using terrestrial laser scanning data to drive decimetric resolution urban inundation models

Short description: The advent of airborne LIDAR sparked a renewed research drive in two-dimensional hydraulic modelling at the turn of the millennium due to its ability to rapidly generate accurate DEMs over wide areas. Terrestrial LIDAR applies the same principle but uses a mobile ground-based platform, allowing rapid collection of terrain data in urban areas at decimetric scale. Here we apply two computationally efficient hydraulic models to DEMs of a small urban test site in Alcester, UK

Year: 2012

Author(s): Sampson, C.C; Fewtrell, T.J; Duncan, A; Shaad, K; Horritt, M.S. ; Bates, P.D.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Willis Limited; Environment Agency; Halcrow Group

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170812000401


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Application of the 1D-Quasi 2D model TINFLOOD for floodplain inundation prediction of the River Thames

Short description: TINFLOOD, a simplified numerical model developed for simulation of floodplain inundation, is applied to predict the extent of flooding at a small reach of the River Thames, UK. River flow is computed by solving the de Saint Venant equations with a one-dimensional finite volume approach. Over-bank flood water spillage from the river onto the floodplains is computed considering mass exchange only between the one-dimensional river cells and the adjacent floodplain cells. Flow exchange between the river and flo

Year: 2011

Author(s): Kuiry, S.N; Sen, D.J; Bates, P.D. ; Yan, D.

Organisation(s): University of Mississippi; Indian Institute of Technology; University of Bristol

Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09715010.2011.10515036#.UpZa6sRDv50


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Benchmarking urban flood models of varying complexity and scale using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data

Short description: This paper describes benchmark testing of a diffusive and an inertial formulation of the de St. Venant equations implemented within the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data. The models are applied to a hypothetical flooding scenario in a section of Alcester, UK which experienced significant surface water flooding in the June and July floods of 2007 in the UK. The sensitivity of water elevation and velocity simulations to model formulation and grid resolution are analyzed.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Fewtrell, T.J; Duncan, A; Sampson, S.C; Neal, J.C. ; Bates, P.D.

Organisation(s): Willis Research Network; Environment Agency, UK; University of Bristol, UK

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706510002184


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Coastal Flood Modelling (from climate modelling to coastal inundation)

Short description: \"In this Report 1 an integrated modelling system is described for downscaling from climate models, to wave climate and continental shelf models for tides and surge, to coastal models for waves and water levels, to overtopping of sea defences and inundation.\" Model is applied to a UK case study including prediction of inundation levels, assessment of model sensitivity to errors, extreme joint probability analysis and the effect of different sea level and climate change scenarios.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Peter Stansby; Nicolas Chini; Benedict Rogers; Maurice McCabe; Alistair Borthwick; Kuo Yan; Judith Wolf; Chris Wilson; Lucy Bricheno; Angela Scott; Andrew Saulter

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; University of Manchester; University of Oxford; National Oceanography Centre; Environment Agency; Met Office

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/Research%20Report/FRMRC2%20SWP2_WP2.1_Re


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CONHAZ Report on Costs of Alpine Hazards

Short description: Report covering aspects of the costs of alpine hazards such as flooding, landslides and avalanches. It covers their costs, methods of assessing these costs, mitigation and end-user views.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Clemens Pfurtscheller; Bernhard Lochner; Annegret H. Thieken

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, ; alpS GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria; Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck, ; Climate Service Center, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geestha

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP08_1_FINAL.pdf


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Discussion: modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

Short description: The performance of a two-dimensional numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with global positioning system surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The simple finite-volume model is used to solve the two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30 000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers

Year: 2011

Author(s): Horritt, M; Bates, P; Fewtrell, T; Mason, D; Wilson, M.; Spencer, P.

Organisation(s): Halcrow Group Ltd; University of Bristol; University of Reading; St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago

Link: http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/content/article/10.1680/wama.2010.163.6.273


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Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation using data for the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK.

Short description: Two-dimensional flood inundation modelling is a widely used tool to aid flood risk management. In urban areas, the model spatial resolution required to represent flows through a typical street network often results in an impractical computational cost at the city scale. This paper presents the calibration and evaluation of a recently developed formulation of the LISFLOOD-FP model, which is more computationally efficient at these resolutions.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Neal, J.C, Schumann, G; Fewtrell, T; Budimir, M; Bates, P. ; Mason, D.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Willis Research Network; University of Bristol; University of Southampton; University of Reading

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2011.01093.x/abstract


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Flooding and the framing of risk in British broadsheets,1985-2010

Short description: Our analysis of 2707 news stories explores the framing of flooding in Britain over the past quarter century and the displacement of a once dominant understanding of flooding as an agricultural problem of land drainage by the contemporary concern for its urban impacts, particularly to homes and property. We document dramatic changes in the volume and variety of reporting about flooding since 2000 as the risks of flooding have become more salient, the informal ‘Gentlemen’s Agreement’ between government and pr

Year: 2011

Author(s): Escobar ,M.; Demeritt, D.

Organisation(s): King\'s College London

Link: http://pus.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/09/06/0963662512457613.abstract


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Geometric and structural model complexity and the prediction of urban inundation

Short description: Recent research modelling floodplain inundation processes has concentrated on issues surrounding the level of physical, topographical, and numerical solver complexity needed to represent floodplain flows adequately. However, during flooding episodes the channel typically still conveys the bulk of the flow. Despite this, the effect of channel physical processes and topographic complexity on model results has been largely unexplored.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Fewtrell, T.J; Neal, J.C; Bates, P.D. and Harrison, P.J

Organisation(s): Willis Research Network; University of Bristol; Hyder Consulting

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.8035/abstract


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Guidance for assessing flood losses CONHAZ Report

Short description: Report includes stakeholder engagement, impact of floods, flood damage assessment, decision making. \"These guidelines are for the purpose in assessing the losses from floods; those who have to make a decision in which the cost of some flood event or potential event is a determinant of what choice should be made. There are many such stakeholders and many potential decisions in which an assessment of the cost of flooding is relevant. It is these different needs that these guidelines seek to address.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): Prof. Colin Green; Dr. Christophe Viavattene; Dr. Paul Thompson

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex Universit

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP06_1.pdf


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Improved Storm Surge Forecasting

Short description: \"New approaches for the measuring and prediction of storm surges have been examined in this project, with the overall goal of improving storm surge forecasting in the years ahead.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): Chris Wilson; Kevin Horsburgh; Jonathan Lawry

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; National Oceanography Centre; University of Bristol

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/Research%20Report/FRMRC2%20SWP2_WP2.3_Re


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Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the upper Danube catchment

Short description: Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to lowspatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Bogner, K; Cloke, H.L.; Pappenberger, F.; De Roo, A. ; Thielen, J.

Organisation(s): ECMWF; JRC; King\'s College London

Link: http://www.ecmwf.int/staff/florian_pappenberger/publications/pdf/JRBMkonrad.pdf


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Incorporating culvert blockage research within flood risk analysis models

Short description: \"Heriot-Watt University has been undertaking analysis and exploration into the likelihood of debris creating blockages at culverts.\" \"the EA (Environment Agency) has commissioned the development of risk analysis software, the Modelling and Decision Support Framework (MDSF2) that has some capability to include information relating to culvert blockage.\" \"This technical note summarises Heriot-Watt University’s research into culvert blockage and the current capability available within MDSF2.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): Ben Gouldby; Nick Wallerstein; Caroline McGahey; David Wyncoll; Scott Arthur

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; HR Wallingford; Heriot-Watt University

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/FRMRC2_WP4_1_ScienceReport.pdf


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Methodology report on costs of mitigation

Short description: \"This report provides the results from a study into the cost of mitigation measures for the reduction of natural hazard risks in European Member States. The mitigation measures considered are aimed at reducing risks from droughts, floods, storms and induced coastal hazards, and alpine hazards.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): L.M. Bouwer; J. Poussin; E. Papyrakis; V.E. Daniel; C. Pfurtscheller; A.H. Thieken; J.C.J.H. Aerts

Organisation(s): Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije U; Institute of Geography, University of Innsbruck; Climate Service Center, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthac

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP04_2.pdf


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Methods for Assessment of the Costs of Droughts

Short description: Report reviewing the costs of droughts. The report draws on an extensive review of the literature as well as an expert and stakeholder workshop. It explains terminology and classifications, describes and compares methods of drought cost assessment and considers their suitability.The report also briefly details potential policies for drought mitigation and adoption, and suggests recommendations for best-practice procedures.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Ivana Logar; Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Institute of Environmental Science and Technology

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP05_1_FINAL.pdf


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Natural Hazards: direct costs and losses due to the disruption of production processes

Short description: Overview of the varied methods of assessing costs of natural hazards. \"methods as well as data sources and terminology are compiled, systemized and analysed....Similarities and differences between the cost assessment methods of different natural hazards are identified, so that most can be learned from the various approaches applied in different European countries. In addition, knowledge gaps and research needs are highlighted and recommendations for best practices of cost assessments are provided.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): Philip Bubeck; Heidi Kreibich

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Germany Research Centre for Geosciences

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20REPORT%20WP01_2.pdf


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Quantifying the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk estimates for the UK.

Short description: Future sea-level rise will increase coastal flood risk in the U.K., yet the hazard uncertainties associated with such future risk estimates have not been fully explored. The sensitivity of coastal flood-risk mapping to future uncertainties was investigated by propagating ranges of plausible parameters through a LISFLOOD inundation model of a significant historic flood event to the North Somerset (U.K.) coast.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Lewis, M; Horsburgh, K; Bates, P.D. ; Smith, R

Organisation(s): National Oceanography Centre; University of Bristol

Link: http://jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00147.1


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Review of the existing EU, national and international policies in the field of risk prevention

Short description: This report reviews the existing EU, national and international policies in the field of prevention. The objective is to provide an overview of prevention-related EU policies and legislation, taking into particular account the water related disasters

Year: 2011

Author(s): Pierpaolo Campostrini; Chiara  Dall’Angelo;  Paola Trevisan; Salvano Briceno;  Giuliano Di Baldassarrre;  Michele Ferri;  Peter Salamon

Organisation(s): CORILA

Link: http://www.kulturisk.eu/results/wp1


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SCIENCE-POLICY BRIEF - Assessing the costs of droughts

Short description: Four page summary of a CONHAZ report. \"It is aimed at helping policy makers and practitioners to distinguish between different types of drought costs and at providing them support in making a choice between the existing methods for assessing the costs of droughts. Moreover, the findings concerning drought mitigation and adaptation policies and knowledge gaps can help them identify strengths and weaknesses of current drought policies and needs for future research.\"

Year: 2011

Author(s): I. Logar; J.C.J.M. van den Bergh; J. Martin-Ortega

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Barcelona, Spain; VU University Amsterdam; The James Hutton Institute

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20science-policy%20brief%20droughts_online%20version.pd


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SCIENCE-POLICY BRIEF - Guidance for assessing flood losses

Short description: Designed as a science-policy brief. Pamphlet style overview (2 page) of the main aspects of assessing flood losses and flood risk management.

Year: 2011

Author(s): C. Viavattene;

Organisation(s): CONHAZ; Flood Hazard Research Centre

Link: http://conhaz.org/CONHAZ%20science-policy%20brief%20floods_online%20version.pdf


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Selecting the appropriate hydraulic model structure using low-resolution satellite imagery

Short description: This study aims at investigating the value added by an explicit representation of floodplain processes in hydraulic models, by comparing the results of a pure 1D model to the ones of an integrated 1D–2D model. The analysis is performed on a 96 km reach of the River Po (Italy). For this test site, two different model structures (1D and 1D–2D) are implemented and compared. The models are first calibrated using high water marks of a high magnitude event

Year: 2011

Author(s): Prestininzi, P; Di Baldassarre, G; Schumann, G.; Bates, P.

Organisation(s): University of Rome; UNESCO-IHE; University of Bristol

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170810001788


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The accuracy of sequential aerial photography and SAR data for observing urban flood dynamics, a case study of the UK summer 2007 floods

Short description: In this paper we examine, for the first time, the potential of remote sensing to monitor flood dynamics in urban areas and constrain mathematical models of these processes. This is achieved through the development of a unique data set consisting of a series of eight space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and aerial photographic images of flooding of the UK town of Tewkesbury acquired over an eight day period in summer 2007.

Year: 2011

Author(s): Schumann, G. J.-P; Neal, J.C; Mason, D.C. ; Bates, P.D.

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; University of Reading

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425711001854


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The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system

Short description: The Normal Quantile Transform (NQT) has been used in many hydrological and meteorological applications in order to make the Cumulated Density Function (CDF) of the observed, simulated and forecast river discharge, water level or precipitation data Gaussian. It is also the heart of the meta-Gaussian model for assessing the total predictive uncertainty of the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz. In the field of geo-statistics this transformation is better known as Normal-Score

Year: 2011

Author(s): Bogner, K.; Pappenberger, F; Cloke, H. L.

Organisation(s): ECMWF; JRC; King\'s College London

Link: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/8/9275/2011/hessd-8-9275-2011.html


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Timely low resolution SAR imagery to support floodplain modelling: a case study review

Short description: It is widely recognised that remote sensing can support flood monitoring, modelling and management. In particular, satellites carrying Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are valuable as radar wavelengths can penetrate cloud cover and are insensitive to daylight. However, given the strong inverse relationship between spatial resolution and revisit time, monitoring floods from space in near real time is currently only possible through low resolution (about 100 m pixel size) SAR imagery. For instance, ENVI

Year: 2011

Author(s): Di Baldassarre, G; Schumann, G; Brandimarte, L.; Bates, P.

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bri

Link: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10712-011-9111-9#page-1


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Coupled 1D–Quasi-2D Flood Inundation Model with Unstructured Grids

Short description: A simplified numerical model for simulation of floodplain inundation resulting from naturally occurring floods in rivers is presented. Flow through the river is computed by solving the de Saint Venant equations with a one-dimensional (1D) finite volume approach. Spread of excess flood water spilling overbank from the river onto the floodplains is computed using a storage cell model discretized into an unstructured triangular grid.

Year: 2010

Author(s): Kuiry, S.N; Sen, D.J. ; Bates, P.D.

Organisation(s): Univ. of Mississippi; Indian Institute of Technology; University of Bristol

Link: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000211


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Visualisation approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information

Short description: The January 2005 flood event in the Eden catchment (UK) has focused considerable research effort towards strengthening and extending operational flood forecasting in the region. The Eden catchment has become a key study site within the remit of phase two of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium. This paper presents a synthesis of results incorporating model uncertainty analysis, computationally efficient real-time data assimilation/forecasting algorithms, two-dimensional (2D) inundation modelling

Year: 2010

Author(s): Leedal, D; Neal, J; Beven, K; Younger, P. ; Bates, P.

Organisation(s): Lancaster University; University of Bristol; Uppsala University, Sweden; Australian National University

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01063.x/abstract


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Breaching Processes: a state of the art review

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. A review of the process of embankment breaching. The following themes are covered in the report: breach initiation and formation; different types of breach models, their capabilities, research initiatives and difficulties in validation; system risk models; priorities for future work.

Year: 2009

Author(s): Mark Morris

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=45


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Flood risk assessment and flood risk management

Short description: This report is meant to be used for eduction. It provides as \"easy-to-read\" introductory text for students on flood risk assessment and management. The document is formatted to give a broad overview of the subject in a relatively concise text, with extra detail provided in boxes. Frequent references are also made to specific research activities of the FLOODsite project which students can follow for more in depth treatment of any of the issues raised.

Year: 2009

Author(s): Frans Klijn

Organisation(s): FLOODsite Consortium

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=798


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GMS - Geophysical Monitoring System: validation and testing

Short description: Report from FLOODsite website. \"Presently the state and performance of these embankments can only be investigated visually or by slow intrusive methods (boreholes etc.) Potential now exists to apply a geophysical investigation tool, originally developed for military applications, for rapid non-intrusive identification of \"hot spots\" of deterioration in embankments. Better targeting of maintenance interventions using this approach will achieve substantial whole-life cost savings and avoid costly failures

Year: 2009

Author(s): Zuzana Boukalová; Vojtech Benes; Jakub Heller; Michal Tesar

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford; Vodni Zdroje; G Impuls

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=162


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Influence of the desiccation fine fissuring on the stability of flood embankments

Short description: \"The aim of this project was to investigate the effect of desiccation and fissuring of clay fill on the geotechnical stability of flood defence embankments\" Uses a combination of field, laboratory and theoretical methods.

Year: 2009

Author(s): Philippe Sentenac; Marcin Zielinski; Mark Dyer

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; Strathclyde University; Trinity College Dublin

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/UR14_2009%20Final%20version_nso.pdf


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Recommendations for flood risk management with communities at risk

Short description: \"The paper draws lessons from our empirical investigations in Germany, Italy and England/Wales in a very specific perspective: It formulates recommendations for flood risk management with people at risk. Thus it tries to shed light on the views of this important - but often neglected - group of stakeholders. ... recommendations relate to the following fields: flood risk awareness, flood preparedness, flood risk communication, participation in flood risk management and social vulnerability.\"

Year: 2009

Author(s): Annett Steinführer; Bruna De Marchi; Christian Kuhlicke; Anna Scolobig; Sue Tapsell; Sylvia Tunstall

Organisation(s): Centre of Environmental Research, a member of Dres; Flood Hazard Research Centre; Istituto di Sociologia Internazionale di Gorizia;

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=294


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Reliability Analysis of Flood and Sea Defence Structures and Systems

Short description: \"The complex relationship between individual elements of a flood defence system and its overall performance is poorly understood and difficult to predict routinely (i.e. the combination of failure modes and their interaction and changes in time and space).\" This dosument reports on \"developing reliability analysis techniques and incorporating present process knowledge on individual failure modes as well as interactions between failure modes\".

Year: 2009

Author(s): Pieter van Gelder

Organisation(s): Technical University Delft; HR Wallingford; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=801


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Review of flood hazard mapping

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. Reviews both riverine and coastal flooding. Covers aspects such as national flood hazard mapping schemes (European), data-requirements, the \"source-pathway-receptor\" model for flood risk estimation, modelling methods (flooding and erosion), sources of uncertainty, and presentation/communication of information.

Year: 2009

Author(s): Panayotis Prinos; Andreas Kortenhaus; Barbara Swerpel; José A. Jiménez ;

Organisation(s): Aristotle University of Thessaloniki; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics; Polish Academy of Sciences Institute of Hydroengi; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=195


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Case Study: Minehead

Short description: Educational material provided on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium website. Description: \"Uses steady flow HEC-RAS modelling to build a rating curve at the site of a proposed flow gauge. Includes HEC-RAS model.\" Includes background information on the case-study area (including information sheet and presentation slides) and an exercise to carry out using the HEC-RAS flood modelling software package (available free for download from US Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Centre).

Year: 2008

Author(s): H. Haynes

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; Jacobs Engineering Group; University of Glasgow; Environment Agency

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/teaching_materials.htm?pane=1


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Case Study: River Kelvin

Short description: Educational material provided on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium website. Description: \"Uses steady flow HEC-RAS modelling to assess flood risk to Kirkintilloch. Includes slides on theoretical background, handout and HEC-RAS models.\" Includes background information on the River Kelvin case-study and an exercise to model flood risk in the area using the HEC-RAS flood modelling software package (available free for download from US Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Centre).

Year: 2008

Author(s): Alan McGowan

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium, Halcrow

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/case_study_river_kelvin.htm


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Case Study: Test and Itchen Catchment Flood Management Plan

Short description: Educational material provided on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium website. Description: \"Looks into sustainable flood risk management and catchment flood management plans, with some questions for students.\"

Year: 2008

Author(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; Halcrow; Environment Agency

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/teaching_materials.htm?pane=1


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Evacuation and traffic management

Short description: Report summarising work done under the FLOODsite project. Focusses on evacuation modelling and traffic managements in relation to flood events. Includes a review of european flood management practice and evacuation procedures and models used worldwide. Evacuation models are tested at three European sites, the Thames Estuary, UK, the Schelde estuary, Netherlands, the Gard Region, France.

Year: 2008

Author(s): Darren Lumbroso; Eric Gaume; Christiaan Logtmeijer; Marjolein Mens; Marnix van der Vat

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford; Deltares | Delft Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=249


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Guidelines on Coastal Flood Hazard Mapping

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. Presents guidelines for flood hazard mapping with an emphasis on coastal sedimentary environments and the impact of extreme events, following the \"sources-pathway-receptor\" model for risk mapping. Includes data-requirements, analysis and models, and a case study on the Ebro delta.

Year: 2008

Author(s): José A. Jiménez; Andreas Kortenhaus; Markus Anhalt; Christoph Plogmeier; Panayotis Prinos; Wojciech Sulisz

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=397


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Introduction to Flooding

Short description: Educational material provided on the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium website. Description: \"Provides background to flooding issues, including recent events, flood defence and the role of the Environment Agency.\" 74 Page power-point presentation including slides on flooding background, flood defence, flooding in the UK, flood management and flood modelling. Includes lots of photographic images.

Year: 2008

Author(s): Roger Falconer; Garry Pender; Binliang Lin; Dongfang Liang; Jon Wicks

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; Cardiff University; Heriot Watt University; University of Cambridge; Halcrow; Environment Agency

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/teaching_materials.htm?pane=1


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The Development of the Basin Wide System of Flood Warning

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite project. Focusses on the Tisza River Basin. The report gives an overview of the hydrological and meterological networks in each country of the Tisza basin, and details of how data is disseminated and flood forecasts made and communicated. Countries included are Ukraine, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia.

Year: 2008

Author(s): Péter Bartha

Organisation(s): Water Resources Research Centre (VITUKI)

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=783


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Awareness of and preparedness for storm-surges in a coastal community on the North Sea

Short description: MSc Thesis. \"Risk awareness and personal preparedness are seen to be important parameters in an integrated risk management scheme today. This study is contributing to the knowledge base about the perception of risk. Regarding the risk of storm-surges, an assessment of the perception and the status of personal preparedness of the people are addressed in an interview study in a coastal community on the North Sea.\"

Year: 2007

Author(s): Sonja Dorothea Hofmann

Organisation(s): University of Newcastle

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=617


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Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods

Short description: \"In this report we show different methods for the socio-economic evaluation of different types of flood damages and give recommendation when to chose which approach. Furthermore, principles of economic evaluation are outlined.\"

Year: 2007

Author(s): Frank Messner; Edmund Penning-Rowsell; Colin Green; Volker Meyer; Sylvia Tunstall; Anne van der Veen

Organisation(s): Centre of Environmental Research, a member of Dres; Flood Hazard Research Centre; University of Twente; HR Wallingford

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=50


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Evaluation of Inundation Models: Limits and Capabilities of Models

Short description: This report aims to provide a comprehensive reference of flood inundation models for the flood manager. We begin by describing the processes important for flood propagation, the equations for modelling these processes, the simplifications and assumptions. Examples of each type of model are given, the limits and capabilities of each model or class of models are described.

Year: 2007

Author(s): Simon Woodhead; Nathalie Asselman; Yves Zech; Sandra Soares-Frazão; Paul Bates; Andreas Kortenhaus

Organisation(s): University of Bristol; Deltares | Delft Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=142


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Failure Mechanisms for Flood Defence Assets

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website.\"This report provides an analysis of flood defence asset failure modes, structured acccording to asset and loading type. Failure mode information for each asset is presented in a common format and structured for use within reliability analysis models. The intention is that this document forms a central store of agreed failure mechanisms for flood defence assets and that indivdiual failure mode templates are updated within the report as new or refined methods are developed.\"

Year: 2007

Author(s): William Allsop; Andreas Kortenhaus; Mark Morris

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=39


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GIS-based Multicriteria Analysis as Decision Support in Flood Risk Management

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. Subjects covered include: development of a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach and the influence of uncertainty. Includes a pilot study at the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany.

Year: 2007

Author(s): Volker Meyer; Dagmar Haase; Sebastian Scheuer

Organisation(s): Centre of Environmental Research

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=236


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Hydraulic loading of flood defence structures

Short description: This report reviews previous investigations on hydraulic loading conditions for different types of flood defence structures such as sea dikes, dunes, beaches and seawalls. For each of these structures the physical processes involved are discussed in some detail and methods are given to either predict relevant input parameters for failure modes of flood defences or the behaviour of the flood defence system under actions from waves or currents.

Year: 2007

Author(s): Andreas Kortenhaus; Neelke Doorn; Peter Hawkes; Magnus Larson; Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla

Organisation(s): Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics; Deltares | Delft Hydraulics; HR Wallingford; University of Lund

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=181


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River capacity improvement and partial floodplain reactivation along the Middle-Tisza: Scenario analysis of intervention options

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. Focusses on the Tisza River, Hungary. It gives an overview of previous flooding events, and discusses causes of reduced capacity along the river (for example changes in landuse and introduction of artificial structure). Hydrodynamic modelling (HEC-RAS 1D) is then used to investigate potential alleviation schemes focussing on increasing capacity along the river.

Year: 2007

Author(s): Sándor Tóth; Sándor Kovács

Organisation(s): H-EURAqua Water-Environmental Consulting Engineeri; Water Resources Research Centre (VITUKI); M-T DEWD

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=888


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Description of flood defence structures for pilot sites

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. \"This report describes individual flood defence structures of all pilot sites in FLOODsite. For each of the 10 pilot sites the following details are described: the flood prone area, the failures observed in the past, an overview of all defence structures, the flood defence structures in detail together with their potential failure modes.\"

Year: 2006

Author(s): Andreas Kortenhaus; Foekje Buijs; Hans-Jörg Markau; Stefan Reese; Peter Geisenhainer; Jochen Schanze; Peter Bakonyi; Jose Jiménez; Marco Borga

Organisation(s): HR Wallingford; Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulics; University of Kiel; Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Deve; Water Resources Research Centre; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya; University of Padova; Deltares | Delft Hydraulics

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=40


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Evaluation of Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models for Real-Time Flood Forecasting use in the Yangtze River Catchment

Short description: A key component of the Yangtze River Flood Control and Management Project is the development of an integrated real-time flood forecasting system to improve the reliability, accuracy and lead times of forecast flood discharges and flood levels along the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Central to the flood forecasting system is the use of appropriate hydrologic and hydraulic models.

Year: 2006

Author(s): M.S. Markar; S.Q. Clark; Min Yaowu; Zheng Jing

Organisation(s): Sagric International Pty. Ltd.; Changjiang Water Resources Commission

Link: http://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=233153776567022;res=IELENG


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Experiments with AdaBoost.RT, an Improved Boosting Scheme for Regression

Short description: The application of boosting technique to regression problems has received relatively little attention in contrast to research aimed at classification problems. This letter describes a new boosting algorithm, AdaBoost.RT, for regression problems. Its idea is in filtering out the examples with the relative estimation error that is higher than the preset threshold value, and then following the AdaBoost procedure.

Year: 2006

Author(s): D.L. Shrestha; D.P. Solomatine;

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/neco.2006.18.7.1678


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Forecasting streamflow using hybrid ANN models

Short description: In this paper, the classic ‘divide and conquer (DAC)’ paradigm is applied as a top-down black-box technique for the forecasting of daily streamflows from the streamflow records alone, i.e. without employing exogenous variables of the runoff generating process such as rainfall. To this end, three forms of hybrid artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used as univariate time series models, namely, the threshold-based ANN (TANN), the cluster-based ANN (CANN), and the periodic ANN (PANN).

Year: 2006

Author(s): Wen Wang; H.A.J.M Pieter van Gelder; J. K. Vrijling; Jun Ma

Organisation(s): Hohai University; Delft University of Technology; Yellow River Conservancy Commission

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169405004981


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Influence of errors in radar rainfall estimates on hydrological modeling prediction uncertainty

Short description: This study aims to assess the impact of a class of radar rainfall errors on prediction uncertainty of a conceptual water balance model. Uncertainty assessment is carried out by means of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation procedure (GLUE). The effects of model input and structural error are separated, and the potential for compensating errors between them is investigated.

Year: 2006

Author(s): M. Borga; S. Degli Esposti; D. Norbiato

Organisation(s): University of Padua

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005WR004559/pdf


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Integrated approach to model decomposed flow hydrograph using artificial neural network and conceptual techniques

Short description: This paper presents the findings of a study aimed at decomposing a flow hydrograph into different segments based on physical concepts in a catchment, and modelling different segments using different technique viz. conceptual and artificial neural networks (ANNs).

Year: 2006

Author(s): Ashu Jain; Sanage Srinivasulu

Organisation(s): Indian Institute of Technology; Institute of Post Graduate Studies and Research

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169405002854


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Learning hydrologic flow separation algorithm and local ANN committee modeling

Short description: Learning models are used in hydrologic forecasting more and more often. Natural phenomena are, however, multi-stationary and are composed of a number of interacting processes. Their modeling often assumes the existence of one single model handling all processes, which often suffers from inaccuracies. A solution is to model various processes separately by different models optimized to represent every single process, and to merge them in a committee. In this paper two approaches are considered.

Year: 2006

Author(s): Gerald Corzo; Dimitri Solomatine

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=1716810&url=http%3A%2F%2Fi


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Measures and serviceability indicators linked to a drainage system asset performance and deterioration model

Short description: The report describes the following deliverables: \"• A model that predicts deterioration with time in terms of internal condition grade • A model that predicts the number of blockages • A model that predicts the number of collapses • A model that links the blockage and collapse rate to flooding incidents These models present a first attempt to provide a methodology that will subsequently be refined as more data becomes available and new approaches to predictive modelling are developed.\"

Year: 2006

Author(s): Adrian Saul

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; University of Sheffield

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/UR1%20not%20signed%20off.pdf


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Modular Learning Models in Forecasting Natural Phenomena

Short description: Modular model is a particular type of committee machine and is comprised of a set of specialized (local) models each of which is responsible for a particular region of the input space, and may be trained on a subset of training set. Many algorithms for allocating such regions to local models typically do this in automatic fashion. In forecasting natural processes, however, domain experts want to bring in more knowledge into such allocation, and to have certain control over the choice of models.

Year: 2006

Author(s): D.P. Solomatine; M. Siek

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0893608006000141


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Monthly runoff simulation: Comparing and combining conceptual and neural network models

Short description: Runoff estimation is of high importance for many practical engineering applications so that, e.g. power production, dam safety and water supply can be ensured. The methods and time step relevant for runoff simulations vary depending on the location and the application. Long-term runoff simulation for Scandinavia is of high importance as its hydropower production is affected by climate variability, which strongly influences winter temperature and precipitation. T

Year: 2006

Author(s): Patrick Nilsson; Cintia B. Uvo; Ronny Berndtsson

Organisation(s): Lund University

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169405003963


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Placement of Smart Grass Reinforcement at Test Sections Groningen Sea Dyke

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. \"The present report deals with the application of a provisional Smart Grass Reinforcement (SGR) system in 2006 for full scale testing of increased overtopping at the Groningen sea dyke test section near Delfzijl, as envisaged in 2007. The SGR has been placed at two strips of 4 m wide: one primary strip at the basic test site and one at a secondary test strip for additional testing.\"\" Covers preparation, installation, follow-up, conclusions and recommendations.\"

Year: 2006

Author(s): K.A.J. van Gerven; G.J. Akkerman

Organisation(s): Infram

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=168


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Updating algorithms in flood forecasting

Short description: \"In this Report, we consider various aspects of model-based, real-time flood forecasting, concentrating on the research being carried out at Lancaster under the aegis of the FRMRC. In particular, we discuss the development of models and methods that allow for the real-time updating of forecasts and model parameters in flood forecasting models.\" Includes details \"semi-tutorial\" appendices on important background information.

Year: 2006

Author(s): Peter Young; Renata Romanowicz; Keith Beven; J Bushell

Organisation(s): Flood Risk Management Research Consortium; University of Lancaster

Link: http://web.sbe.hw.ac.uk/frmrc/downloads/UR5%20signed%20off.pdf


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Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting—a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure

Short description: A new robust, accurate and efficient data assimilation procedure based on a general filtering update combined with error forecasting at measurement points is presented. The filtering update procedure is based on a predefined, time invariant weighting (gain) function that is used to distribute model errors at measurement points to the entire state of the river system. The error forecast models are used to propagate model errors at measurement points in the forecast period.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Henrik Madsen; Claus Skotner

Organisation(s): DHI Water and Environment

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404005372


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Artificial neural network technique for rainfall forecasting applied to the São Paulo region

Short description: An artificial neural network (ANN) technique is used to construct a nonlinear mapping between output data from a regional ETA model ran at the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research/Brazil, and surface rainfall data for the region of São Paulo State, Brazil. The objective is to generate site-specific quantitative forecasts of daily rainfall.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Maria Cleofé Valverde Ramírez ; Haroldo Fraga de Campos Velho ; Nelson Jesus Ferreira

Organisation(s): Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404003191


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Comparison of data-driven Takagi–Sugeno models of rainfall–discharge dynamics

Short description: Over the last decades, several data-driven techniques have been applied to model the rainfall–discharge dynamics of catchments. Among these techniques are fuzzy rule-based models, which attempt to describe the catchment response to rainfall input through fuzzy relationships. In this paper, we demonstrate three different methods for constructing fuzzy rule-based models of the Takagi–Sugeno type relating rainfall to catchment discharge.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Hilde Vernieuwe; Olga Georgieva; Bernard De Baets; Valentijn R.N. Pauwels; Niko E.C. Verhoest; Francois P. De Troch

Organisation(s): Ghent University; Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404003774


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Effects of storm impacts in the Ebro delta coast

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite project. Describes the main impacts of the recent Ebro Delta. The storms have been identified as \"problematic\" due to their ecological and/or economic impacts. The affected regions are described and details of the storms (i.e. their hydrodynamic conditions) are given. Vulnerable areas of the delta are identified (e.g. those prone to inundation or erosion). as are the storm conditions which would put these areas at risk.

Year: 2005

Author(s): José A. Jiménez

Organisation(s): Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=86


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Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception - challenges for flood damage research

Short description: \"The current state-of-the-art in flood damage analysis mainly focuses on the economic evaluation of tangible flood effects. It is contended in this discussion paper that important economic, social and ecological aspects of flood-related vulnerabilities are neglected. It is a challenge for flood research to develop a wider perspective for flood damage evaluation.\"

Year: 2005

Author(s): Frank Messner; Volker Meyer

Organisation(s): Centre of Environmental Research, a member of Dres

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=54


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Hybrid moving block bootstrap for stochastic simulation of multi-site multi-season streamflows

Short description: The Hybrid approach introduced by the authors for at-site modeling of annual and periodic streamflows in earlier works is extended to simulate multi-site multi-season streamflows. It bears significance in integrated river basin planning studies.

Year: 2005

Author(s): VV Srinivas; K Srinivasan

Organisation(s): Indian Institute of Science; Indian Institute of Technology Madras

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404003828


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IPerformance evaluation of rainfall-runoff models using multi-objective optimization approach

Short description: We explore the effectiveness of multi-objective optimization approach for performance evaluation of rainfall-runoff models. The multi-objective optimization of the Tank Model is investigated using historical data of the Eigenji Dam Basin. RMSE (root mean square error) that emphasizes the error at high flows and RR (root mean square of relative error) that emphasizes the error at low flows are used as objective functions and these functions are simultaneously minimized.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Y. Fujihara; H. Tanakamaru; T. Hata

Organisation(s): Japan Science and Technology Agency; Kobe University;

Link: http://wrrc.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/wrrc-rep/25/papers/APHW2004-fujihara.pdf


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Joint Probability: Dependence Mapping and Best Practice

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. \"A number of methods of joint probability analysis are set out and contrasted. The methods are applied to the dependence between a number of variable-pairs relevant to flood risk in the UK, for example wave heights and sea levels for coastal flood risk, and river flow and sea level for river flood risk. The dependence results are mapped around the UK for use in subsequent site-specific coastal engineering studies.\"

Year: 2005

Author(s): Peter Hawkes; Cecilia Svensson

Organisation(s): Defra; Environment Agency; HR Wallingford

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=33


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Large sample behaviors of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) in assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations

Short description: Several methods have been recently proposed for quantifying the uncertainty of hydrological models. These techniques are based upon different hypotheses, are diverse in nature, and produce outputs that can significantly differ in some cases. One of the favored methods for uncertainty assessment in rainfall-runoff modeling is the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). However, some fundamental questions related to its application remain unresolved.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Alberto Montanari

Organisation(s): University of Bologna

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004WR003826/pdf


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Precipitation variability in the meuse basin in relation to atmospheric circulation

Short description: The distribution of precipitation events in the Meuse basin during the past century has been found to reflect the large-scale atmospheric circulation, as characterised by the Grosswetterlagen system. Statistical analysis of the long observation records (1911-2002) for the basin showed that although the annual (November to October) and winter half-year (November to April) frequencies of wet days > or = 1 mm/day) were nearly stable, the associated precipitation amounts have significantly increased since 1980

Year: 2005

Author(s): M. Tu; P.J.M de Laat; M.J.J de Wit

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15926222


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Prediction boundaries and forecasting of non linear hydrologic stage data

Short description: This paper analyzes and forecasts hydrologic stage data in the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, the northernmost extent of the Florida Everglades. Analysis indicates that the process dynamics are chaotic, for which several attractor invariants are evaluated. A connection is made between the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy of the phase-space trajectories and limits of temporal stage predictability. Evaluation of the KS entropy establishes a boundary for forecast time periods.

Year: 2005

Author(s): J. Park; J. Obeysekera; R. Vanzee

Organisation(s): South Florida Water Management District

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169405000806


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Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model

Short description: Distributed watershed models should pass through a careful calibration procedure before they are utilized as a decision making aid in the planning and management of water resources. Although manual approaches are still frequently used for calibration, they are tedious, time consuming, and require experienced personnel.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Misgana K. Muleta; John W. Nicklow

Organisation(s): Southern Illinois University at Carbondale

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216940400424X


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Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations

Short description: An uncertainty analysis of the unsteady flow component (UNET) of the one-dimensional model HEC-RAS within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is presented. For this, the model performance of runs with different sets of Manning roughness coefficients, chosen from a range between 0.001 and 0.9, are compared to inundation data and an outflow hydrograph. The influence of variation in the weighting coefficient of the numerical scheme is also investigated.

Year: 2005

Author(s): F. Pappenberger; K. Bevena; M. Horrittb; S. Blazkova

Organisation(s): Lancaster University; University of Bristol; T G Masaryk Water Research Institute

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404003294


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Use of Joint Probability Methods in Flood Management: A guide to best practice

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite website. \"This report begins with an Introductory Users\' Guide to Joint probability Analysis. The report describes methods for joint probability analysis of variable-pairs relevant to flood risk in the UK. Two methods are described in sufficient detail for actual use, a desk study method for rapid non-specialist use, and a rigorous analytical method for specialist use. The report also summarises the mapping around the UK of dependence between the variable-pairs.\"

Year: 2005

Author(s): PJ Hawkes

Organisation(s): Defra; Environment Agency; HR Wallingford

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=34


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Wave overtopping and grass cover layer failure on the inner slope of dikes

Short description: From FLOODsite website: This MSc thesis details the investigation of grass cover performance in relation to wave overtopping processes. Failure modes for grass cover are considered and developed.

Year: 2005

Author(s): Martin Young

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute of Water Education

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=797


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A comparative study of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling

Short description: This study compares four MCMC sampling algorithms in the context of rainfall-runoff modeling. The algorithms compared include a conventional Metropolis-Hastings algorithm usedpreviously in hydrological applications which uses a combination of block and single-site updating and an adaptive Metropolis algorithm that has characteristics that are well suited to model parameters with a high degree of correlation and interdependence, as is often evident in hydrological models.

Year: 2004

Author(s): L. Marshall; D. Nott; A. Sharma

Organisation(s): University of New South Wales

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003WR002378/pdf


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Bayesian system for probabilistic stage transition forecasting

Short description: The second analytic-numerical Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is presented. The purpose of this BFS is to produce a short-term probabilistic stage transition forecast (PSTF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) as an input and a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity) as a means of simulating the response of a headwater basin to precipitation.

Year: 2004

Author(s): Mauro Di Luzio; Jeffrey G. Arnold

Organisation(s): University of Virginia

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404002422


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Bayesian system for probabilistic stage transition forecasting

Short description: The second analytic-numerical Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) is presented. The purpose of this BFS is to produce a short-term probabilistic stage transition forecast (PSTF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) as an input and a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity) as a means of simulating the response of a headwater basin to precipitation.

Year: 2004

Author(s): Roman Krzysztofowicza; Coire J. Maranzano

Organisation(s): University of Virginia

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404001064


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Formulation of a hybrid calibration approach for a physically based distributed model with NEXRAD data input

Short description: This paper describes the background, formulation and results of an hourly input–output calibration approach proposed for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT) watershed model, presented for 24 representative storm events occurring during the period between 1994 and 2000 in the Blue River watershed (1233 km2 located in Oklahoma).

Year: 2004

Author(s): Mauro Di Luzio; Jeffrey G. Arnold

Organisation(s): Texas A&M University; United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultu

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404002422


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Hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic stage transition forecasting

Short description: The hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) is a component of the Bayesian forecasting system which produces a short-term probabilistic stage transition forecast (PSTF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). The PSTF specifies a sequence of families of predictive one-step transition density functions whose product gives the predictive joint density function of the actual river stage process {H1,…,HN}.

Year: 2004

Author(s): Roman Krzysztofowicza; Coire J. Maranzano

Organisation(s): University of Virginia

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404000137


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Increasing the forecasting lead-time of Weather Driven Flash-floods

Short description: Report from the FLOODsite project. Gives details of the weather systems causing flash-floods, hydrological processes during flash-floods, types of data available for their observation and methods and issues of flash-flood modelling and predictability.

Year: 2004

Author(s): J. D. Creutin; S. Anquetin; G. Delrieu; V. Ducrocq; E. Gaume; I. Ruin

Organisation(s): Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble

Link: http://www.floodsite.net/html/partner_area/search_results3b.asp?docID=17


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Statistical analysis of hydrographs and water-table fluctuation to estimate groundwater recharge

Short description: Using water-table monitoring data from the National Groundwater Monitoring Network in Korea, groundwater hydrographs were classified into five typical groups. Then, to estimate groundwater recharge, a modified water-table fluctuation (WTF) method was developed from the relation between the cumulative WTF and corresponding precipitation records. Applying this method to different types of hydrographs, the spatial variability of recharge in river basins was evaluated.

Year: 2004

Author(s): Sang-Ki Moona; Nam C. Wooa; Kwang S. Leeb

Organisation(s): Yonsei University; Yonsei University

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169404000241


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A fuzzy neural network model for deriving the river stage–discharge relationship

Short description: The measurement discharge in major rivers is very important and serves as the base information for hydrological analysis. The rating curve is used to assess the discharge from the measured stage values in the gauging sites. The rating curve has important bearing on the correct assessment discharge. The usefulness the fuzzy neural network modelling approach in deriving the stage–discharge relationship is discussed.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Paresh Deka; V. Chandramouli

Organisation(s): Indian Institute of Technology

Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.48.2.197.44697


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Bayesian POT modeling for historical data

Short description: When designing hydraulic structures, civil engineers have to evaluate design floods, i.e. events generally much rarer that the ones that have already been systematically recorded. To extrapolate towards extreme value events, taking advantage of further information such as historical data, has been an early concern among hydrologists.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Eric Parent; Jacques Bernier

Organisation(s): GRESE (Laboratory for Risk Analysis in Water Scien

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169402003967


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Boosting and Microarray Data

Short description: We have found one reason why AdaBoost tends not to perform well on gene expression data, and identified simple modifications that improve its ability to find accurate class prediction rules. These modifications appear especially to be needed when there is a strong association between expression profiles and class designations.

Year: 2003

Author(s): PHILIP M. LONG; VINSENSIUS BERLIAN VEGA

Organisation(s): Genome Institute of Singapore

Link: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/neco.2006.18.7.1678


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he use of stream flow routing for direct channel precipitation with isotopically-based hydrograph separations: the role of new water in stormflow generation

Short description: Understanding the pathways by which event water contributes to stream stormflow provides insight into stormflow generation mechanisms. We analyze the impact of storm size on the relative contribution of event water to stormflow by using natural variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation and stream water to separate multiple stormflow hydrographs from a single fourth-order, 1212 ha catchment.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Carl E. Renshaw; Xiahong Feng; Kelsey J. Sinclair; Raymond H. Dums

Organisation(s): Dartmouth College

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216940200392X


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Hydrological characterisation of pesticide loads using hydrograph separation at different scales in a German catchment

Short description: esticide pollution of surface waters was studied in a 49.7 km2 catchment in Germany. The loads were differentiated into point source (PSP) and non-point source pollution (NPSP). The contribution of runoff, interflow, groundwater, drainage and spray drift to river contamination was defined as NPSP. Pesticides discharged into the river via wastewater treatment plants and sewer overflows were considered as PSP.

Year: 2003

Author(s): K. Mullera; M. Deurerb; H. Hartmannc; M. Bachd; M. Spitellerc; H.-G. Frede

Organisation(s): Ruakura Research Centre: Technical University of H; University of Kassel; University of Giessen

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169402003153


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Improved estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasting

Short description: Handling uncertainties in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model is approached as an error modelling problem. The approach is based on the application of a parallel data-driven model that uses available measured data and previous model errors at specific time steps to forecast the errors of the conceptual model. The average mutual information technique is used to study the relationship between the different variables and the model errors at varying lag times.

Year: 2003

Author(s): S. Maskey; V. Guinot

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Université Montpellier

Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.48.2.183.44692


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Managing uncertainty in hydrological models using complementary models

Short description: Handling uncertainties in a conceptual rainfall–runoff model is approached as an error modelling problem. The approach is based on the application of a parallel data-driven model that uses available measured data and previous model errors at specific time steps to forecast the errors of the conceptual model. The average mutual information technique is used to study the relationship between the different variables and the model errors at varying lag times.

Year: 2003

Author(s): A. J. Abebe; R. K. Price

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.48.5.679.51450


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Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark

Short description: An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km2 grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km2. The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Hans Jorgen Henriksen; Lars Troldborg; Per Nyegaard; Torben Obel Sonnenborg; Jens Christian Refsgaard; Bjarne Madsen

Organisation(s): Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169403001860


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Neural Networks In Reconstructing Missing Wave Data In Sedimentation Modelling

Short description: Decision support systems for efficient water management and control require themeasured time series data such as rainfall, runoff, water level, waves, wind etc. In practical situations these time series often contain gaps that might originate from failures of apparatusor some other reasons. For example the wave data measured at the wave measuring station Europlatform in the North Sea consists of gaps in the wave data time series.

Year: 2003

Author(s): B. Bhattacharya; D. L. Shrestha; D. P. Solomatine

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education

Link: http://www.academia.edu/2873174/Neural_networks_in_reconstructing_missing_wave_d


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On sieve bootstrap prediction intervals

Short description: In this paper we consider a sieve bootstrap method for constructing nonparametric prediction intervals for a general class of linear processes. We show that the sieve bootstrap provides consistent estimators of the conditional distribution of future values given the observed data.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Andres M. Alonso; Daniel Pena; Juan Romo

Organisation(s): Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715203002141


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PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN BAYESIAN KERNEL MODELS — APPLICATION TO MULTIPLE-STEP AHEAD FORECASTING

Short description: The object Bayesian modelling is the predictive distribution, which in a forecasting scenario enables evaluation forecasted values and their uncertainties. In this paper we focus on eliably estimating the predictive mean and variance forecasted values using Bayesian kernel based models such as the Gaussian Process and the Relevance Vector Machine.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Joaquin Quinonero Candela ; Agathe Girard; Jan Larsen; Carl Edward Rasmussen

Organisation(s): Technical University of Denmark; Technical University of Denmark; Technical University of Denmark

Link: http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/75548/quinonero03propagation.pdf


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Propogation of precipitation uncertainty through a flood forecasting model

Short description: Propogation of precipitation uncertainty through a flood forecasting model

Year: 2003

Author(s): S. Maskey; V. Guinot; R.K. Price

Organisation(s): UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education; Université Montpellier

Link: http://wrrc.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/wrrc-rep/25/papers/APHW2004-fujihara.pdf


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Watershed modeling of rainfall excess transformation into runoff

Short description: In this paper an attempt is made to present a distributed physiographic conceptual model that uses the principles of flow continuity and momentum. For this purpose, the watershed under study is divided into ubwatersheds keeping in view the drainage patterns and characteristics. Then the main tributaries are identified and their drainage areas are delineated to form tributary subwatersheds. The main channel subwatersheds have taken care of the remaining area in the vicinity of the main channel.

Year: 2003

Author(s): Mohammad Reza Najafi

Organisation(s): University of Tehran

Link: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169402002858


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Conditional first-order second moment method and its application to the quantification of uncertainty in groundwater modeling

Short description: Decision making in water resources management usually requires the quantification uncertainties. Monte Carlo techniques are suited for this analysis but imply a huge computational effort. An alternative and computationally efficient approach is the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method which directly propagates parameter uncertainty into the result. We apply the FOSM method to both the groundwater flow and solute transport equations.

Year: 2002

Author(s): Harald Kunstmann; Wolfgang Kinzelbach; Tobias Siegfried

Organisation(s): Karlsruhe Research Center Technology and Environme; Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zu¨rich

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000WR000022/pdf


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A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations

Short description: Rainfall-runoff models have received a great deal attention by researchers in the last decades. However, the analysis their reliability and uncertainty has not been treated as thoroughly. In the present study, a technique for assessing the uncertainty rainfallrunoff simulations is presented that makes use a meta-Gaussian approach in order to estimate the probability distribution the model error conditioned by the simulated river flow.

Year: 2001

Author(s): Alberto Montanari; Armando Brath

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Cente

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR000420/pdf


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Comment on Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model by Roman Krzysztofowicz

Short description: Comment on Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model by Roman Krzysztofowicz

Year: 2001

Author(s): J. C. Schaake; W. Welles; T. Graziano

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Cente

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000WR900281/pdf


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Geographic database, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, United States

Short description: The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) exhibits spatial variability typical the intermountain region. We provide a geographic database toprovide continuous spatial coverage landscape properties that may be useful for distributed hydrological modeling or other kinds spatial analyses and to provide a spatial context for point measurements that have been part the long-term monitoring described in companion papers.

Year: 2001

Author(s): M. Seyfried; R. Harris; D. Marks; B. Jacob

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Cente

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR000414/pdf


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Long-term snow database, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, United States

Short description: Snow is the dominant form of precipitation in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW). Water from snowmelt is critical to the ecosystems and resources in RCEW because the water stored in the seasonal snow cover is the primary source of spring and summer soil moisture and streamflow. Snow water equivalent (SWE) has been measured at eight locations in RCEW every 2 weeks throughout the snow season (December 1 to June 1) for 35 water years (1962-1996).

Year: 2001

Author(s): Danny Marks; Keith R. Cooley; David C. Robertson; Adam Winstral

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Center

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR000416/pdf


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Long-term stream discharge and suspended-sediment database, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, United States

Short description: The U.S. Department Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Northwest Watershed Research Center initiated a stream discharge and suspended-sediment research program at Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in the early 1960s. Continuous discharge measurements began at two sites in 1963, at three additional sites in 1964, and at eight additional sites in subsequent years.

Year: 2001

Author(s): Frederick B. Pierson; Charles W. Slaughter; Zane K. Cram

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Cente

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR000420/pdf


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Reply on Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model by

Short description: Reply on Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model by

Year: 2001

Author(s): Roman Krzysztofowicz;

Organisation(s): University of Virginia

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000WR900282/pdf


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Thirty-five years of research data collection at the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, United States

Short description: Comprehensive, long-term hydrologic data sets for watershed systems are valuable for hydrologic process research; for interdisciplinary ecosystem analysis; for model development, alibration, and validation; and for assessment of change over time. The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho, United States, was established in 1960 and provides a research facility and comprehensive long-term database for science.

Year: 2001

Author(s): Charles W. Slaughter; Danny Marks; Gerald N. Flerchinger; Steven S. Van Vactor; Mike Burgess

Organisation(s): Northwest Watershed Research Cente

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR000413/pdf


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Uncertainty analysis using corrected first-order approximation method

Short description: Application uncertainty and reliability analysis is an essential part many problems related to modeling and decision making in the area environmental and water resources engineering. Computational efficiency, understandability, and easier application have made the first-order approximation (FOA) method a favored tool for uncertainty analysis. In many instances, situations may arise where the accuracy FOA estimates becomes questionable.

Year: 2001

Author(s): Aditya Tyagi; C.T. Haan

Organisation(s): Oklahoma State University

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001WR900013/pdf


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Automatic Calibration and Uncertainty Assessment in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

Short description: An automatic calibration procedure for the MIKE 11/NAM rainfall-runoff model is described. The procedure considers multiple calibration objectives, including (1) a good simulation of the water balance, (2) a good overall agreement of the shape of the hydrograph, (3) a good agreement of peak flows, and (4) a good agreement for low flows. The shuffled complex evolution algorithm is applied for optimising the different calibration objectives simultaneously.

Year: 2000

Author(s): H. Madsen

Organisation(s): DHI, Denmark

Link: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/40517%282000%29147


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Hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic river stage forecasting

Short description: The hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) is a component of the Bayesian forecasting system that produces a short-term probabilistic river stage forecast based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). The task of the HUP is to quantify the hydrologic uncertainty under the hypothesis that there is no precipitation uncertainty.

Year: 2000

Author(s): Roman Krzysztofowicz; Karen S. Kelly

Organisation(s): University of Virginia; Science Applications International Corporatio

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000WR900108/pdf


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Precipitation uncertainty processor for probabilistic river stage forecasting

Short description: The precipitation uncertainty processor (PUP) is a component the Bayesian forecasting system which produces a short-term probabilistic river stage forecast (PRSF) based on a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF). The task the PUP is to process a probability distribution the total precipitation amount through a deterministic hydrologic model ( any complexity) into a probability distribution the model river stage.

Year: 2000

Author(s): Karen S. Kelly; Roman Krzysztofowicz

Organisation(s): Science Applications International Corporation; University of Virginia

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000WR900061/pdf


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The entropy theory as a tool for modelling and decisionmaking in environmental and water resources

Short description: Since the development the entropy theory in the late 1940s and the principle maximum entropy (POME) in the late 1950s, there has been a proliferation applications the entropy theory in a wide spectrum areas, including environmental and water resources. The real impetus to entropy-based modelling in water resources was provided in 1970s. A great variety entropy-based applications in environmental and water resources have since been reported, and new applications continue to unfold.

Year: 2000

Author(s): Vijay P Singh

Organisation(s): Louisiana State University

Link: http://www.wrc.org.za/Knowledge%20Hub%20Documents/Water%20SA%20Journals/Manuscri


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